AP analysis shows more unopposed Missouri races, GOP edge

US Map Pixel Art

US Map Pixel Art

The AP report singled out Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Virginia as examples of battleground states where Republican-led redistricting after the 2010 census led to a large GOP advantage in elections for the U.S. House and state legislatures.

Missouri's state House efficiency gap score favoring Republicans was close to the median of all states analyzed, resulting in about six additional GOP seats over what would have been expected based on the average vote share Republicans received in the districts.

The GOP ultimately fell short of winning enough seats to finally control the House, which Democrats now govern with a slim 79-72 majority.

The Associated Press analyzed all 435 U.S. House races and about 4,700 state House and Assembly elections past year using a statistical method of calculating partisan advantage created to detect potential gerrymandering. A similar analysis in 2014 showed Democrats had a slight advantage in the same districts.

Rather, the number of statehouse seats occupied by Republicans and Democrats closely tracks with the ratio of voters choosing Republican and Democratic statehouse candidates statewide in the 2016 election, taking into account candidates who ran unopposed a year ago.

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Roughly 20 percent of seats up for election had just one major party candidate - seven for Republicans and six for Democrats. They moved Democratic-performing areas into districts that were safe for Republican or Democratic candidates.

"Obviously if you're the party in power and your members wanted to draw districts that helped themselves get elected, to a certain extent that's naturally going to benefit the majority", Kottkamp noted.

"With the current system, obviously the party in charge is drawing the maps to their advantage", he said.

The number of Missouri House races lacking major-party opposition has been on the rise.

And that lack of competition in the fall pushes policy further off center, GiaQuinta argues, no matter which party benefits. The same has been true for voters in part of Kansas City, where their lone option has been a Democrat.

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A legislative study committee chaired by Rep.

"My initial reaction when I saw it was that it did not favor our approach", said Joe Maxwell, a former Democratic lieutenant governor who had been chairman of the unsuccessful citizens' commission.

Then-gubernatorial candidate Eric Holcomb told CNHI Indiana that he supported an independent commission in October 2016. The formula essentially measures and compares each party's wasted votes — those going to the victor in excess of what's needed for victory — in an election and shows that Virginia's GOP votes are more efficiently spread out than Democratic votes.

Torr said he plans to reintroduce the bill in the next legislative session ahead of the upcoming redistricting.

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